Experts believe that the U.S. vaccination rate has begun to slow down, and the virus mutates too fast, and the new variant virus can easily spread. covid-19 may become a controllable threat and will continue to exist in the United States in the next few years, but the number of deaths and hospitalizations caused will be significantly reduced.
(New York) More than half of the population in the United States has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, but scientists and public health experts now believe that it will be difficult for the United States to achieve herd immunity goals in the foreseeable future, if not impossible. This is because the vaccination rate in the United States has begun to slow down, and the virus mutates too fast, and the new variant virus can easily spread.
The New York Times published an article stating that experts initially estimated that to achieve herd immunity, at least 60% to 70% of the population must be vaccinated. This is an estimate based on the original version of the virus. Nowadays, the mutant strain called B117 is mainly circulating in the United States, which is 60% more powerful than the original version. Therefore, after recalculation by experts, the vaccination rate required to achieve herd immunity was increased to 80%. If there is a more transmissible variant of the virus or people who have been vaccinated can still transmit the virus, then this number needs to be adjusted upwards.
Polls show that about 30% of the U.S. population is still unwilling to get vaccinated, so it is extremely difficult to achieve an 80% vaccination rate.
Other experts pointed out that herd immunity is often a national goal, but the spread of the virus is local. Harvard University epidemiologist Lipschich explained that even if the overall immunization coverage rate in the United States is as high as 95%, the virus will still spread in some small towns where the immunization coverage rate is only 70%.
Experts believe that covid-19 may become a controllable threat and will continue to exist in the United States in the next few years, but the number of deaths and hospitalizations caused will be significantly reduced. The key to curbing the spread of COVID-19 lies in continued vaccination, especially for high-risk groups.
In an interview, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the focus should not be on “herd immunity in the traditional sense”, but should continue to be vaccinated to reduce the risk of the spread of coronavirus.
Lipsic said: “The vast majority of deaths and the pressure on the health care system come from people with special conditions, especially people over 60 years old… If we can protect these people from getting serious diseases. Or die, then we can turn the coronavirus from a social disruptor into an ordinary infectious disease.”
Pradeschi, an economist at the French National Center for Scientific Research, believes that as long as the community continues to actively carry out virus testing and contact tracing, it is expected to curb the spread of the virus and keep the newly confirmed cases at a low level. Find out early to avoid a major outbreak.
Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in the United States, said: “The coronavirus is unlikely to disappear, but we must do everything we can to make it a mild infection.”